Eyes on Exploration
When most people think of space exploration, they usually think of NASA, which likely conjures images of rockets launching from the historic Cape Kennedy. However, for those in the know, humanity’s voyage to the stars began on October 4th, 1957 with Russia’s launch of Sputnik, commencing what is known as the First Space Age. Spawned by the Cold War, this period was also called the Space Race because the US and Russia fervently competed for military and space dominance. This heated race led to incredible technological developments and extraordinary achievements for humanity.
Although Russia was the first to send humans to space, the US set its eyes on the Moon with their Apollo missions, which eventually resulted in the most historic achievement of the era: the Apollo 11 Moon Landing on July 20th, 1969. Indeed, the US and Russia were the main players in the Space Race, but did you know there was a third? On April 24th,1970, China launched the Dong Fang Hong 1 satellite into space and has been slowly growing into a major space superpower since.
Fast forward to today and China is now closely on par with or in some cases even outpacing NASA. From the construction of the new Tiangong Space Station to Chang’e 4’s historic moon landing to the newly constructed Long March 8A rocket and the recently expedited Tianwen 3 Mars sample-return mission, China has proven to be a fierce competitor to the long-held US dominance in space.
China’s Rising Star
There are a myriad of factors that have led to China’s rise as a space superpower, so let’s dig into a few key areas of interest.
A Starry Culture
Although humanity has always been fascinated by the stars, culturally speaking, China is very much a lunar nation and a people. Their love and reverence for the Moon, in particular, is not only seeded throughout their oral history and traditions, but they also follow a lunar calendar, which commences with the first New Moon of a solar calendar year. There is also the cherished ancient myth of Chang-e—the Moon Goddess. It tells the story of how she leaves Earth and ascends to the Moon to reside in a jade palace for eternity, where she is joined by her loyal companion, the Jade Rabbit.
These deities are so beloved that China’s lunar missions were named after Chang-e and the first lunar rover was named Yutu after the rabbit. This unique relationship and cultural devotion to the stars may account for why the overall population has a vested interest in space exploration. In short, when an entire population is invested in a relationship with the stars, one could posit that this creates a macro mindset, which further fuels your goals as a space superpower.
Exclusion Fueling Explosive Growth
Since the late 1990s, China has been excluded from US space endeavors. There are a few reasons for this, but stark political differences are often cited. The China National Space Administration (CNSA) was in its infancy when the International Space Station (ISS) became active in late 2000, so their lack of experience is most often cited as to why they were not asked to join the prestigious program. Despite its seeming infancy, CNSA sent the first taikonaut to space aboard the Shenzhou 5 in 2003 and launched Chang-e 1, its first lunar orbiter in 2007.
In 2011, the Wolf Amendment was enacted, which largely prohibited the US from collaborating with China. Although it does not expressly prohibit privately held US companies from direct collaboration, other government restrictions make it near impossible if any desire even exists. Interestingly, during this period, SpaceX began to rapidly disrupt the entire space economy with the introduction of Falcon 9: an affordable, efficient, durable rocket with reusable boosters. What’s more, it offered a significantly increased cadence in launches and much higher payloads with immense cost reduction. So, while SpaceX generated a tidal wave via its irrevocable transformation of space assets, China was forced to ride this wave by rapidly and efficiently expanding its space capabilities and now had the template to do so.
Concurrently, the Space Shuttle was decommissioned in 2011, so although SpaceX was the first private company to send payloads to space during this time, the US relied entirely on Russia’s Soyuz to get astronauts to the ISS until SpaceX’s Dragon mission in 2020. Although unintended, it’s plausible that this 9-year gap of seeming inactivity may have impeded NASA’s innovation, all while China was gaining tremendous momentum. Lastly, China is no stranger to meticulous reinvention either. For example, take their disruptions to solar panels and EV manufacturing, where they significantly reduced costs; thus, greatly increased accessibility, so why would space be approached any differently?
State Owned Enterprise and Venture Capital Collide
Once the cost of operating in space plummeted, it was clear that systemic change was required to keep up in space. In 2014, the release of Document 60 concluded that one of China’s weaknesses as a potential space power was its inability to utilize its capacity for innovation. However, to successfully do so they would have to open the doors to commercial space companies and private funding as seen in the US. Until 2014, China’s space economy was state-owned and operated, wherein private funding was largely unheard of. That said, there are now approximately 100 private space companies within China, which were funded by a mix of government and private VC firms. This is exponential given most of this rapid growth occurred between 2015 and 2020.
Thus, after successfully modeling the US’s public-to-private funding pipeline, China also saw an opportunity to leverage its vast manufacturing infrastructure. This would not only allow them to compete globally, but to dominate in the production and sale of affordable space assets to other countries. In 2020 alone, the Chang-e 4 spacecraft made the first-ever soft landing on the far side of the Moon and Chang-5 was China’s first lunar sample return mission, wherein a new lunar phosphate mineral named Changesite-(Y) was discovered, which contains helium-3. This discovery is significant, seeing as helium-3 may be a stable source for nuclear fusion. If achieved, far less radiation would be created, with a much shorter half-life, meaning we could power our world in a much cleaner, safer manner.
It should be noted that although China still only makes up approximately 28% of global space funding as compared to 46% by the US, their funding infrastructure includes support from local entities: provincial and city governments, which greatly differs from the US model. NASA’s funding is also determined by Congress annually, which arguably makes it far more precarious in the long term, seeing as national space objectives may change based on the continuous flux of the US political climate or when a new administration comes into power every 4-8 years. That said, although China now has a thriving commercial space sector, the state is still heavily involved in private operations, which certainly impacts the stability of funding. This is reflected in the 2020 policy set out by the National Reform and Development Commission, which states that all space assets are not only considered critical infrastructure, but that everything from the ground to low-Earth orbit, to cislunar space will get priority in terms of focus and long term funding projections.
Clear Policy, Objectives and Timelines
Although China has extremely ambitious space objectives, with plans to be a space superpower by 2049, its approach is still highly organized. Aside from declaring all space assets as critical infrastructure—which the US has yet to do—they have clear project objectives and timelines as well. Between 2021 and 2022, they launched and constructed the Tiangong Space Station, which is their modern equivalent to the ISS. They plan on keeping it occupied for a decade at a time and will host experiments from other countries in tandem. Noteworthy is the fact that China is the only country to have cislunar relay communications in the form of Magpie Bridge 1 and 2, both of which were designed to support the Chang-6, 7 and 8 robotic missions.
The Chang-e 6 mission—originally slated for 2025—was completed on May 3rd, 2024, where they were the first to collect samples from the lunar South Pole Aitken Basin. This historic mission also included collaboration with Sweden, Italy, France and Pakistan, demonstrating that many global space agencies are open to working with countries other than the US.
Chang-e 7 is currently slated to launch in 2026 with a primary focus on the search for water ice on the lunar south pole. Chang-e 8, which is scheduled for 2028, will focus on exploring 3D printing of Moon regolith to create lunar bricks for the upcoming construction of the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS)—a permanent Moon Base done in collaboration with Russia. The first phase is currently slated for completion by 2035, whereas the second has a target date of 2050. Establishing a Moon Base also ensures China meets its objective of making space economically profitable via resource extraction and utilization of potential rare earth minerals from asteroids and the Moon itself.
Now although NASA’s Artemis 3 mission, which is scheduled for 2025 currently keeps the US in the lead on overall human Moon exploration, its plans to build an Artemis Base Camp (likely at the Shackleton Crater) have current projections for the early 2030s. This signals the importance for the US to stay on target to remain competitive with China on permanent Moon habitation, resource extraction and utilization—all of which lay the framework for future missions to Mars. Interestingly, the recent and fascinating discovery of dark oxygen1 (made without photosynthesis) in our oceans may speed up timelines for both Artemis and Chang-e. In short, the minerals that are set to be mined for their rare earth elements may be the source of the dark oxygen itself. This has vast implications because the ocean is the largest reservoir of oxygen on our planet—next to the Amazon Basin, so if the minerals are removed en masse, our oxygen levels will be greatly impacted.
Launch Capacity and Heavy Lift Rockets
It’s clear that China has made incredible progress in the space economy in a very short period; however, they are still behind with their rocket design. Although the newly designed Long March 8A is on par with Falcon 9, none of their rockets are currently reusable. This is crucial, not only when speaking to efficiency and long-term sustainability, but also to cost—which impacts the frequency of launches. Presently, China intends to be reusable by 2030, but this is years behind the current behemoth of Starship, which not only has the heaviest lift capacity to date, but is also fully reusable. Lastly, China’s vision for Long March 9 is to compete directly with Starship, but it’s unlikely to be completed before 2030. Of note is that although they are delayed in some respect to rocket design, their ambitious goals for accompanying nuclear power generation far exceed the US’s current goal of 40 kilowatts. China intends to generate 1 megawatt by 2030, so if achieved, this will offer a significant advantage regardless of how far behind they are with reuse, etc.
That said, Long March 8A does allow China to meet its goal of creating a mega constellation to compete directly with Starlink. Between 2025 and 2030, China plans to launch approximately 13,000 satellites into LEO and higher, keeping them on track to meet their goal of emerging as a tech leader by 2045.
Missions to Mars
All roads clearly lead to Mars and although NASA’s Perseverance rover has collected samples since 2021, its Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission is currently in precarious limbo. Unfortunately, 2023’s Fiscal Responsibility Act capped NASA’s funding until 2025, forcing it to push the projected return date of the costly mission from 2030 to 2040. Meanwhile, China’s Tianwen 3 Mars sample-return mission has not only maintained its funding, but its projected timeline has moved from 2031 to 2028. Tianwen 3 will be supported with two Long March 5 rocket launches. The first rocket will comprise a lander and a two-stage ascent vehicle, while the second will carry an orbiter and a return craft. The mission should total approximately 3 years, with a projected return date of 2031.
That said, earlier this year, NASA asked the aerospace industry and academia for help revamping their original mission design, which will bring down costs and expedite the return to an updated 2028 to 2030 timeline. Although 10 proposals have now been selected, nothing will be finalized until a committee reviews them later this year, which still leaves NASA’s MSR vulnerable to delays. If NASA and its newly recruited partners cannot get the revamped project up and running on time, China may be the first to return Martian samples to Earth for study. This is consequential, seeing as these samples are the key to understanding life on Mars, which is a predicate for any successful human mission to the rocky red planet.
The Takeaway
China has clearly demonstrated their merit as a legitimate competitor in space with no plans on slowing down, so the US must critically take note and adjust its space objectives accordingly. Not only does funding require more attention and consistency, but clear, systematic and cohesive planning is also required—not just in the short term—but the long term as well. Lastly, clear and relevant US space policy must take center stage to keep pace as more nations join the Space Race, which will further maintain its historic dominance as a space superpower.
